Alvarado vs Provodnikov: Official Prediction

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Tomorrow night, live on HBO, from Colorado; Ruslan Provodnikov will take on WBO junior welterweight champion, Mike Alvarado. This fight is almost guaranteed to provide action and drama, which may not be a good thing for Alvarado.

This fight is the definition of a “pick-em fight”, I truly believe that either man has the ability to win this fight. What will be the decider, is the way that Alvarado chooses to fight. If he comes in aggressive and lets the atmosphere and moment get to him, then he will lose and more than likely be stopped. If he boxes smart and stays on the jab, and uses angles, he will win, and badly cut up Provodnikov’s face.

It is all in Alvarado’s hands; with that being said I will have to go with Provodnikov in this one. I think he is the mentally tougher fighter, he has more to prove and he just wants it more. Alvarado is coming off a great showing against Brandon Rios, but I think that he will get caught up in the moment wanting to impress for HBO and his hometown crowd, and he will get caught. From what I have seen of Alvarado, he doesn’t have the discipline to get buzzed and continue to stick to his game-plan, he will want to slug it out, and that will not go well for him.

I am taking Provodnikov by a mid to late round stoppage in a entertaining fight, albeit one fought at a low skill level.

What do you guys think of this week’s pick?

Let me know if the comments section, and check back for a post fight analysis.

5 thoughts on “Alvarado vs Provodnikov: Official Prediction

  1. Definitely a tough call on this one, but I agree that Provodnikov has more stake in the fight and it will probably give him the edge in this one. Great analysis of the fighters in the context of the fight and another solid pick of the week!

  2. I disagree with the assessment that Provodnikov fights at a low skill level. He forces fighters into mixing it up, which is a good thing.

    • It inst taking anything away from him. I also enjoy watching his fights, he just wouldn’t fair well against the elite of the division (Matthysse, Garcia, Peterson).
      Rios, Alvarado, and Provodnikov are all second tier junior welterweights, and are lucky that they don’t have to mix it up with the monsters fighting on Showtime.

      With all that being said though, I think he is the best junior welter in the Top Rank stable. I would love to see him face Khabib Allakhverdiev.

      • I think Provodnikov would fare better than most think. There is no question, historically, that top boxers tend to defeat punchers. However, there are punchers who have forced a lot of game plans out the window when they turn up the heat. I think there is a very good chance Provodnikov would defeat Peterson and Matthysse. Garcia would possibly outpoint him but, again, we don’t know how good Provodnikov is now that he has improved his defensive skills.

  3. Jack, I think that Provodnikov is an impressive fighter for sure. I like him a great deal, but no way that he beats Matthysse. Matthysse would stop him late, Garcia would out point him and more than likely outclass him entirely. Peterson would struggle but edge out a decision in a fight that he gets hurt in. Provodnikov’s footwork is just too bad. Alvarado lost because he cannot box and move efficiently; he can move, but he mostly just either runs or throws, he cant seem to fluidly box and move. Not to mention his defense is sub par, lets not forget he damn near lost to breidis prescott.

    I wanna see him fight Rios, or Juan Marquez or Khabib.

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